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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.36+1.62vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.63+1.88vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.63+3.25vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania0.49+2.76vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy0.70+1.28vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.82-2.39vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+1.43vs Predicted
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8Fordham University-0.08+0.28vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.23-1.57vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.62-3.46vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.20-2.36vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-1.44-0.41vs Predicted
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13Washington College-2.16-0.23vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-3.32+0.16vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-2.23-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.62Georgetown University2.360.3%1st Place
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3.88Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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6.25Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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6.76University of Pennsylvania0.490.0%1st Place
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6.28U. S. Naval Academy0.700.1%1st Place
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3.61Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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8.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.28Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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7.43George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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6.54St. Mary's College of Maryland0.620.0%1st Place
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8.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.200.0%1st Place
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11.59Princeton University-1.440.0%1st Place
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12.77Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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14.16William and Mary-3.320.0%1st Place
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12.75University of Virginia-2.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Doble | 33.4% | 24.0% | 17.4% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 15.0% | 19.4% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Josephine Sherry | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 16.4% | 19.4% | 17.0% | 18.6% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Clary | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maisy Sperry | 4.9% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Moira Padilla | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Ella Gonzalez | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 24.7% | 24.5% | 14.8% | 3.9% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 25.8% | 29.8% | 16.0% |
| Julia Larmee | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 9.3% | 19.7% | 62.0% |
| Morgan Rathjen | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 12.1% | 23.8% | 29.3% | 17.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.