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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy0.70+5.12vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.82+1.53vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.36-0.37vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.63+0.03vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania0.49+1.79vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.47vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.20+1.52vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.63-1.57vs Predicted
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9Fordham University-0.08-0.75vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-1.44+1.46vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.62-4.54vs Predicted
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12William and Mary-3.32+2.26vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.23-5.38vs Predicted
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14Washington College-2.16-1.29vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-2.23-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.12U. S. Naval Academy0.700.1%1st Place
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3.53Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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2.63Georgetown University2.360.3%1st Place
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4.03Old Dominion University1.630.2%1st Place
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6.79University of Pennsylvania0.490.1%1st Place
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8.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.200.0%1st Place
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6.43Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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8.25Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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11.46Princeton University-1.440.0%1st Place
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6.46St. Mary's College of Maryland0.620.0%1st Place
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14.26William and Mary-3.320.0%1st Place
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7.62George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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12.71Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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12.72University of Virginia-2.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josephine Sherry | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 18.1% | 21.2% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Doble | 31.5% | 23.7% | 18.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 15.3% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Moira Padilla | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ella Gonzalez | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 20.2% | 25.1% | 15.4% | 3.6% |
| Maisy Sperry | 4.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Larmee | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 7.8% | 16.6% | 67.4% |
| Hayden Clary | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 12.6% | 24.1% | 31.7% | 13.7% |
| Morgan Rathjen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 10.6% | 25.6% | 31.6% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.