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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.82+2.60vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.63+1.87vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.36-0.37vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania0.49+2.73vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy0.70+1.28vs Predicted
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6Fordham University-0.08+2.35vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.23+0.45vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.63-1.54vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-0.55vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.20-1.30vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-1.44+0.44vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-5.67vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-2.23-0.09vs Predicted
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14Washington College-2.16-1.29vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-3.32-0.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.6Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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3.87Old Dominion University1.630.2%1st Place
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2.63Georgetown University2.360.3%1st Place
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6.73University of Pennsylvania0.490.0%1st Place
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6.28U. S. Naval Academy0.700.1%1st Place
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8.35Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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7.45George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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6.46Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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8.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.200.0%1st Place
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11.44Princeton University-1.440.0%1st Place
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6.33St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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12.91University of Virginia-2.230.0%1st Place
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12.71Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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14.1William and Mary-3.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilda Dondona | 19.8% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 15.2% | 18.7% | 16.3% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Doble | 31.3% | 25.1% | 17.2% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Josephine Sherry | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Clary | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Moira Padilla | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Ella Gonzalez | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 21.6% | 23.0% | 14.3% | 5.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Rathjen | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 23.0% | 31.6% | 19.0% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 13.3% | 24.8% | 29.9% | 14.4% |
| Julia Larmee | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 19.1% | 60.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.