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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.36+1.64vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.82+1.52vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+3.09vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.23+3.44vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+3.51vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.70+0.28vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.63-0.60vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania0.49-1.11vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.63-5.06vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.08-1.62vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-1.44+0.41vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.20-3.16vs Predicted
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13Washington College-2.16-0.23vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-3.32+0.16vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-2.23-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.64Georgetown University2.360.3%1st Place
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3.52Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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6.09St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.1%1st Place
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7.44George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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8.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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6.28U. S. Naval Academy0.700.0%1st Place
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6.4Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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6.89University of Pennsylvania0.490.0%1st Place
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3.94Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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8.38Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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11.41Princeton University-1.440.0%1st Place
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8.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.200.0%1st Place
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12.77Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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14.16William and Mary-3.320.0%1st Place
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12.76University of Virginia-2.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Doble | 32.4% | 25.4% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 20.0% | 19.8% | 17.0% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 6.7% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Clary | 2.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Josephine Sherry | 4.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 14.9% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Ella Gonzalez | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 20.8% | 22.0% | 16.7% | 3.9% |
| Moira Padilla | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 12.4% | 25.3% | 30.3% | 15.6% |
| Julia Larmee | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 9.7% | 19.2% | 61.5% |
| Morgan Rathjen | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 11.4% | 23.8% | 29.5% | 18.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.