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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+5.02vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.36+0.56vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.82+0.57vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.63+0.02vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.23+2.50vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.63+0.44vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania0.49-0.19vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy0.70-1.73vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.20-0.39vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.08-1.61vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia-2.23+1.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-3.32vs Predicted
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13Washington College-2.16-0.21vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-1.44-2.57vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-3.32-0.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.02St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.1%1st Place
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2.56Georgetown University2.360.3%1st Place
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3.57Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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4.02Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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7.5George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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6.44Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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6.81University of Pennsylvania0.490.1%1st Place
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6.27U. S. Naval Academy0.700.1%1st Place
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8.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.200.0%1st Place
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8.39Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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12.8University of Virginia-2.230.0%1st Place
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8.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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12.79Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-1.440.0%1st Place
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14.1William and Mary-3.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cho-Cho Williams | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Doble | 33.6% | 24.5% | 17.2% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 18.2% | 18.7% | 17.6% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 14.3% | 16.8% | 16.1% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Clary | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Josephine Sherry | 5.6% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Moira Padilla | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Rathjen | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 6.2% | 11.4% | 22.9% | 29.7% | 18.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 11.1% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 11.4% | 23.5% | 31.7% | 16.3% |
| Ella Gonzalez | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 22.1% | 23.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% |
| Julia Larmee | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 11.0% | 18.0% | 61.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.