Race 5A

nickerson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Richard Pokorny 5.1% 6.7% 7.6% 8.4% 7.5% 11.8% 13.1% 11.3% 12.5% 9.6% 5.9% 0.5%
Keith Grupenhoff 6.0% 7.2% 8.0% 10.6% 10.8% 11.4% 9.5% 12.9% 11.4% 7.6% 4.4% 0.2%
Noah Stapleton 18.5% 17.2% 15.6% 13.6% 12.0% 9.9% 6.3% 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Freddie Parkin 25.3% 23.5% 15.5% 13.8% 8.6% 6.2% 4.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Parker Moore 12.5% 11.9% 13.8% 13.5% 11.6% 11.3% 9.1% 7.6% 4.7% 2.7% 1.3% 0.0%
Wells Connor 3.1% 2.6% 6.0% 5.6% 4.7% 6.4% 8.8% 11.5% 14.6% 16.8% 18.1% 1.8%
Ryan Keenan 4.5% 5.9% 5.0% 6.4% 10.5% 9.2% 10.3% 10.8% 10.4% 14.3% 12.2% 0.5%
Cody Roe 15.3% 13.1% 14.2% 12.5% 12.3% 11.8% 9.1% 4.9% 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Turner Ryon 2.7% 4.8% 6.1% 7.0% 10.2% 8.8% 11.4% 13.1% 12.3% 13.6% 9.7% 0.3%
Walter McFarland 4.0% 4.9% 5.0% 5.8% 7.3% 7.3% 10.6% 12.2% 13.9% 13.8% 14.5% 0.7%
Jan Mistak 2.7% 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 4.2% 5.7% 7.5% 9.3% 12.0% 17.2% 30.6% 3.0%
Cole Norris 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.3% 1.6% 2.1% 93.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.