Race 3B

nickerson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Bo Angus 15.5% 13.6% 15.2% 11.0% 12.0% 10.4% 6.0% 7.0% 4.3% 2.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Henry Ladd 6.5% 8.6% 7.7% 8.5% 9.8% 9.9% 8.8% 8.8% 9.8% 10.2% 6.7% 4.1% 0.6%
Graham Rebain 3.5% 3.7% 4.1% 7.3% 7.2% 6.1% 7.5% 8.5% 12.1% 11.4% 13.7% 13.6% 1.3%
Griggs Diemar 23.8% 18.9% 15.6% 13.0% 10.3% 6.7% 5.8% 2.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Jake Homberger 8.0% 7.8% 7.9% 8.8% 8.1% 9.2% 9.4% 10.5% 9.0% 9.1% 7.5% 4.2% 0.5%
Alders Kulynych-Irvin 8.6% 10.4% 10.4% 11.2% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 8.4% 7.8% 5.7% 5.3% 2.6% 0.2%
Leonardo Burnham 6.9% 7.7% 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% 8.7% 10.6% 9.0% 10.5% 10.2% 9.0% 6.5% 0.7%
Crue Ziskind 8.0% 10.0% 10.3% 8.7% 9.5% 10.8% 10.7% 9.3% 8.9% 6.3% 4.3% 3.1% 0.1%
Leila Pfrang 7.5% 8.2% 8.2% 9.5% 9.3% 9.7% 10.7% 9.8% 8.3% 7.2% 7.0% 4.1% 0.5%
Keegan Chatburn 6.3% 4.3% 6.3% 7.0% 7.3% 7.2% 9.1% 9.5% 9.6% 11.0% 11.7% 9.3% 1.4%
Peter Judge 2.9% 2.7% 4.6% 4.8% 6.1% 4.9% 5.8% 8.3% 10.0% 12.2% 14.5% 20.1% 3.1%
Kaitlyn Beaver 2.2% 3.7% 2.7% 3.4% 3.9% 6.1% 5.2% 7.4% 6.4% 12.1% 15.6% 27.2% 4.1%
Peter Huntley-Robertson 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3% 2.4% 4.8% 87.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.