Race 4A

hanbury

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Adam Larson 20.0% 16.5% 16.1% 12.8% 10.7% 8.0% 6.5% 4.2% 3.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Aston Atherton 5.9% 5.5% 6.5% 6.6% 7.5% 9.2% 10.2% 10.1% 11.3% 10.2% 9.8% 5.4% 1.9%
Joshua Bendura 7.0% 6.6% 8.5% 8.3% 9.2% 9.5% 10.6% 9.8% 10.2% 8.9% 6.7% 3.4% 1.1%
Valerio Palamara 7.8% 8.1% 7.8% 9.7% 10.4% 10.0% 9.2% 10.8% 8.9% 7.6% 5.9% 2.6% 1.1%
Olivia Sowa 10.5% 10.5% 10.1% 10.6% 10.4% 10.8% 9.0% 8.8% 7.7% 6.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4%
Joseph Bonacci 3.5% 4.1% 5.1% 5.5% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.3% 10.6% 11.5% 14.7% 12.0% 6.7%
Sam Riley 8.2% 7.0% 8.2% 9.8% 8.9% 9.3% 9.6% 9.2% 8.6% 9.2% 7.1% 3.9% 1.1%
Lars Osell 7.8% 11.8% 10.5% 10.7% 11.1% 9.6% 10.2% 8.6% 6.7% 6.6% 3.7% 1.8% 0.8%
Luke Manternach 5.6% 6.5% 6.7% 6.1% 6.9% 8.6% 9.7% 11.2% 10.0% 11.2% 9.7% 6.6% 1.5%
William Roberts 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.4% 4.2% 3.5% 5.7% 7.0% 10.6% 15.4% 21.9% 19.9%
Patrick Cashin 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.7% 4.3% 4.0% 4.8% 5.3% 8.5% 9.6% 13.6% 21.4% 16.4%
Sam Woodley 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 4.5% 4.8% 8.7% 19.4% 48.9%
Landon Cormie 18.2% 16.6% 14.1% 12.3% 11.8% 8.6% 7.0% 5.3% 2.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.