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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.26vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.01+5.40vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.45+2.82vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.13+2.70vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.54+3.93vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.90+1.61vs Predicted
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7Penn State University0.96+4.15vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-2.02vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.94+2.26vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.92vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.24-0.72vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.07+2.43vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.08-2.44vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.43-4.89vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.51-2.27vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.79-4.09vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-6.10vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.69-2.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.26U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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7.4Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.82Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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6.7University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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8.93Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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7.61George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.15Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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5.98St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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11.26Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
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6.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.28Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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14.43Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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10.56Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
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9.11Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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12.73SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
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11.91Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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15.86Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 18.2% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.8% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 9.8% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 20.4% | 22.8% |
| James Fair | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Adam Starck | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 7.9% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 4.7% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 16.9% | 49.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.