← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University2.01+6.34vs Predicted
-
2Webb Institute1.54+7.17vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.18vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.78vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+1.05vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+4.79vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University0.79+4.82vs Predicted
-
8Virginia Tech0.07+6.06vs Predicted
-
9Queen's University1.08+1.72vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.13-3.00vs Predicted
-
11Penn State University0.96+0.28vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University1.24-1.52vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College0.51-0.40vs Predicted
-
14Georgetown University2.45-8.53vs Predicted
-
15George Washington University1.90-7.44vs Predicted
-
16Cornell University1.43-6.51vs Predicted
-
17Princeton University0.94-5.66vs Predicted
-
18Columbia University-0.69-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.34Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
-
9.17Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
-
4.18U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
-
5.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
6.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
-
10.79U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
-
11.82Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
-
14.06Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
-
10.72Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
-
7.0University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
-
11.28Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
-
10.48Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
12.6SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
-
5.47Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
-
7.56George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
-
9.49Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
-
11.34Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
-
15.87Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Thress | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 17.6% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 20.4% | 21.3% |
| James Fair | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Adam Starck | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 7.8% |
| Enzo Menditto | 12.0% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ava Gustafson | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Logan Mraz | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.4% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 50.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.