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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.28vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.44+3.86vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+3.17vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.13+2.67vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.24+5.05vs Predicted
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6Queen's University1.08+4.77vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.14vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-0.81vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.90-1.44vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.43-0.40vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.54-1.84vs Predicted
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12Penn State University0.96-0.50vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.07+1.05vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.51-1.47vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.94-3.80vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-5.17vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.69-0.95vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.79-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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5.86Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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6.17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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6.67University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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10.05Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.77Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
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5.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.19Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.56George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.6Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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9.16Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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11.5Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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14.05Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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12.53SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
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11.2Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
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10.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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16.05Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
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11.68Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 17.7% | 17.7% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 9.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| James Fair | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 3.9% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| Adam Starck | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 6.6% |
| Logan Mraz | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 16.3% | 52.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.