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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.09vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+4.21vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.01+4.43vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.90+3.55vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.43+4.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.89vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.74vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.54+0.93vs Predicted
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9Penn State University0.96+2.19vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.51+2.97vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.07+3.18vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.44-5.98vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.08-2.45vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-7.41vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.94-3.78vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.79-4.12vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.69-0.94vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.24-8.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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7.43Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.55George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.31Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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4.11U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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10.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.93Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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11.19Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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12.97SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
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14.18Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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6.02Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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10.55Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.59University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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11.22Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
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11.88Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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16.06Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
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9.99Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 19.4% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% |
| Adam Starck | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 8.5% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 20.3% | 19.9% |
| Peter Barnard | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Fair | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.8% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 5.0% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 15.7% | 52.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.