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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.04vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.12vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.54+6.11vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech0.07+9.84vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+0.92vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.45-0.34vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.51+5.59vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90-0.64vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.43+0.25vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.94+1.37vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.01-3.82vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.13-4.97vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-0.45vs Predicted
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14Queen's University1.08-3.72vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.79-3.33vs Predicted
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16Penn State University0.96-4.90vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.24-6.84vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.69-2.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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4.12U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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9.11Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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13.84Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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5.66Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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12.59SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
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7.36George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.25Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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11.37Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
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7.18Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.03University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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12.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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10.28Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.67Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.1Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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10.16Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.78Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 17.2% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 11.3% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Starck | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 8.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ava Gustafson | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Logan Mraz | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Langdon Wallace | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 8.9% |
| James Fair | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 4.6% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 48.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.