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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.45+4.78vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.01+5.30vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.15vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.74vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.24+4.93vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.51+6.64vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-0.99vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.94+2.96vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.07+5.01vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+2.87vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.90-3.43vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.43-2.39vs Predicted
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13Queen's University1.08-2.56vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-7.49vs Predicted
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15Penn State University0.96-4.02vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.54-7.05vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.79-5.25vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.69-2.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.3Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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4.15U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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5.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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9.93Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.64SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
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6.01St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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10.96Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
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14.01Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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12.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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7.57George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.61Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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10.44Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.51University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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10.98Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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8.95Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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11.75Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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15.79Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Menditto | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 18.3% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Adam Starck | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 9.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 10.2% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 2.2% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| Langdon Wallace | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Ava Gustafson | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| James Fair | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.9% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 49.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.