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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.03vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.16vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+3.11vs Predicted
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4Penn State University0.96+6.94vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.01+2.11vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.54+2.86vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.45-1.40vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90-0.59vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.43+0.23vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.08+0.77vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.07+3.04vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.24-1.74vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.13-6.38vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.51-1.65vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.94-3.98vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-3.14vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.79-5.18vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.69-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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4.16U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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10.94Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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7.11Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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8.86Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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5.6Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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7.41George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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9.23Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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10.77Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
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14.04Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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10.26Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.62University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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12.35SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
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11.02Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
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12.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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11.82Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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15.81Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 15.5% | 19.5% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Lucas Thress | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.1% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Enzo Menditto | 13.1% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ava Gustafson | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| James Fair | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 19.2% | 19.9% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 1.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Starck | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 7.1% |
| Logan Mraz | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| Langdon Wallace | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 8.8% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 4.2% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 48.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.