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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.01+6.34vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.51+10.88vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.43+6.45vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+1.90vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.58vs Predicted
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6Penn State University0.96+5.06vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+0.48vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.45-2.46vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.38vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.83vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.24-0.87vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.07+2.35vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.54-4.22vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.79-2.64vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.32vs Predicted
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16Queen's University1.08-5.31vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.94-5.78vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.69-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.34Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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12.88SUNY Maritime College0.510.0%1st Place
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9.45Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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5.9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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6.58University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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11.06Penn State University0.960.0%1st Place
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7.48George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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5.54Georgetown University2.450.1%1st Place
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5.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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4.17U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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10.13Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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14.35Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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8.78Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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11.36Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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12.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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10.69Queen's University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.22Princeton University0.940.0%1st Place
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15.77Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Thress | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Adam Starck | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 7.5% |
| Ava Gustafson | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Jensen | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 8.7% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Enzo Menditto | 10.3% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 18.8% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 21.5% | 21.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Langdon Wallace | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 7.8% |
| James Fair | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 10.2% | 17.7% | 46.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.