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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.79+2.85vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+3.05vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.47+1.70vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+1.40vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.54-0.59vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute0.04+6.43vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.08+1.97vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.30+0.09vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.39-0.96vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.27-1.72vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.32-2.73vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-0.03+0.44vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-2.00vs Predicted
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14Penn State University0.54-3.15vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.15-2.22vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-1.53-0.25vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.06-4.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.85Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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5.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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4.7University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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5.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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4.41U. S. Naval Academy2.540.2%1st Place
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12.43Webb Institute0.040.0%1st Place
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8.97Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.09Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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8.04George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.28Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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8.27Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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12.44Virginia Tech-0.030.0%1st Place
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11.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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10.85Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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12.78Princeton University-0.150.0%1st Place
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15.75Columbia University-1.530.0%1st Place
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12.66SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Herlihy | 19.3% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 12.1% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 12.2% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 12.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 15.1% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Taylor | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 16.6% | 7.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Pierce Brindley | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Bender | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 16.4% | 16.1% | 6.9% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% |
| Joseph Murphy | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 1.7% |
| Advik Eswaran | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 19.1% | 9.4% |
| Alexander Vincenti | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 62.4% |
| Luke Barker | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.