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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+4.00vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.79+1.86vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+2.36vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.30+3.29vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.47-1.41vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.32+1.31vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech-0.03+4.36vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.54-4.53vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.15+2.92vs Predicted
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11Penn State University0.40+0.12vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-1.03vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.37-1.79vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-1.53+1.62vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University1.08-5.90vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute-0.45-2.55vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.39-9.01vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.27-9.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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3.86Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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5.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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8.29Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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4.59University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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8.31Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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12.36Virginia Tech-0.030.0%1st Place
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4.47U. S. Naval Academy2.540.2%1st Place
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12.92Princeton University-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.12Penn State University0.400.0%1st Place
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10.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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11.21SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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15.62Columbia University-1.530.0%1st Place
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9.1Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.45Webb Institute-0.450.0%1st Place
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7.99George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.39Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landon Cormie | 12.3% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Herlihy | 19.4% | 17.7% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 9.5% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 14.9% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Brindley | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Bender | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 16.7% | 14.9% | 5.8% |
| Henry Allgeier | 17.3% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Advik Eswaran | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 18.3% | 8.4% |
| Claire Sullivan | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.4% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 2.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% |
| Alexander Vincenti | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 14.0% | 62.9% |
| Joshua Bendura | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Woods | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 23.8% | 14.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.