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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.79+2.87vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+3.03vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.47+1.71vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+1.46vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.54-0.54vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.08+3.24vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.27+1.47vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.03+3.35vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.30-1.57vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.32-2.77vs Predicted
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12Penn State University0.54-1.08vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.15-0.08vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.39-5.89vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute0.04-2.52vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-4.96vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.37-5.54vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-1.53-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.87Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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5.03St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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4.71University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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5.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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4.46U. S. Naval Academy2.540.2%1st Place
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9.24Christopher Newport University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.47Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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12.35Virginia Tech-0.030.0%1st Place
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8.43Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.23Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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10.92Penn State University0.540.0%1st Place
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12.92Princeton University-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.11George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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12.48Webb Institute0.040.0%1st Place
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11.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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11.46SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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15.81Columbia University-1.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Herlihy | 19.0% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 12.4% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 12.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 15.3% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Zachary Bender | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 16.7% | 7.9% |
| Pilar Cundey | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Pierce Brindley | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Murphy | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% |
| Advik Eswaran | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 20.9% | 9.3% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Liam Taylor | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 16.1% | 7.5% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 4.5% |
| Alexander Vincenti | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 64.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.