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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.10+3.40vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.34+1.56vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University0.12+3.72vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.60+1.89vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.37+1.66vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.43+0.63vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.03+0.49vs Predicted
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8McGill University-0.36+0.70vs Predicted
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9Bates College-0.58+0.23vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University0.42-4.30vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.52-3.83vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.67-2.46vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.43-1.58vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-1.76-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.4University of Rhode Island1.1016.1%1st Place
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3.56Brown University1.3422.7%1st Place
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6.72Northeastern University0.126.0%1st Place
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5.89Connecticut College0.609.2%1st Place
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6.66Brown University0.377.4%1st Place
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6.63Boston University0.436.9%1st Place
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7.49Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.035.1%1st Place
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8.7McGill University-0.363.8%1st Place
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9.23Bates College-0.583.2%1st Place
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5.7Fairfield University0.429.4%1st Place
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7.17Connecticut College0.525.8%1st Place
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9.54Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.672.4%1st Place
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11.42Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.431.0%1st Place
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11.88Middlebury College-1.761.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ingalls | 16.1% | 15.6% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Grant Adam | 22.7% | 17.9% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rooks | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| John Cabell | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Luke Kenahan | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 1.3% |
| Mikhail Lavrenov | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 3.9% |
| Harrison Nash | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 7.9% |
| Nolan Cooper | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Caleb Burt | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 9.0% |
| Oliver Browne | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 12.7% | 21.4% | 31.6% |
| Talia Trigg | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 20.1% | 41.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.