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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+5.32vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+2.87vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.62+3.52vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.73+5.80vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.73vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.07+2.49vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.97+1.86vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-0.88vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77+0.41vs Predicted
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10University of Connecticut1.72+2.68vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin3.19-3.00vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University2.38-1.31vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.66-6.68vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.55-3.91vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.55-0.18vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University3.70-9.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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4.87SUNY Maritime College4.150.2%1st Place
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6.52College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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5.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.49Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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8.86Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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9.41Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.68University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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8.0University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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10.69Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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6.32U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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10.09University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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14.82Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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6.27Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Murray | 16.2% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| George Saunders | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Price | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 1.1% |
| Gary Herring | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 29.8% | 15.8% |
| Michael Lee | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 4.6% |
| Jason Carminati | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 2.7% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 11.5% | 68.8% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.3% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.