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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+3.77vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.97+6.68vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.70+3.24vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.55+6.32vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.39vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin3.19+2.05vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+2.67vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-0.92vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University2.38+1.68vs Predicted
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10University of Connecticut1.72+2.72vs Predicted
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11Washington College3.65-4.56vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.62-5.40vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.77-3.61vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-8.46vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.07-6.50vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.55-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77SUNY Maritime College4.150.2%1st Place
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8.68Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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6.24Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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10.32University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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6.39U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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8.05University of Wisconsin3.190.0%1st Place
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9.67Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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10.68Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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12.72University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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6.44Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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6.6College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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9.39Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.5Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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14.91Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 15.4% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 2.9% |
| Jason Carminati | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Michael Lee | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% |
| Gary Herring | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 4.6% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 28.7% | 17.1% |
| Michael Whitford | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nick Johnstone | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 12.0% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| George Saunders | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Grasso | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 14.0% | 67.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.