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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College4.15+3.68vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.07+6.32vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.19+5.00vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.73+5.72vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.71vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.97+2.83vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.62-0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.55+2.06vs Predicted
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9Washington College3.65-2.60vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.66-3.58vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University2.38-0.34vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.77-2.61vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.72-0.47vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University3.70-7.89vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-7.67vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.22-0.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68SUNY Maritime College4.150.2%1st Place
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8.32Roger Williams University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.0University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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9.72Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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5.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.83Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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6.64College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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10.06University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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6.4Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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10.66Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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9.39Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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12.53University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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6.11Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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15.2Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Murray | 17.0% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Saunders | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Michael Lee | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 1.6% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 10.9% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| Nick Johnstone | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 2.3% |
| Michael Whitford | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Jason Carminati | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 3.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 2.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 31.1% | 11.5% |
| Brady Stagg | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Gary Herring | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 10.2% | 75.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.