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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.62+5.42vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.58vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.66+3.34vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.65+2.58vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.73+4.63vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College4.15-1.10vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin3.19+1.08vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.55+2.05vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University2.38+1.66vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.97-1.15vs Predicted
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11University of Connecticut1.72+1.47vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.77-2.52vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.07-4.68vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-6.93vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.70-8.68vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.22-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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5.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.34U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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6.58Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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4.9SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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8.08University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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10.05University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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10.66Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.85Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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12.47University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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9.48Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.32Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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6.32Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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15.23Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Johnstone | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 11.9% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 9.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Whitford | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Sachs | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 1.6% |
| Shawn Murray | 14.3% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lee | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 1.5% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 3.7% |
| Christopher Price | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 14.7% | 30.6% | 12.6% |
| Duncan Howes | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 1.8% |
| George Saunders | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Gary Herring | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 10.0% | 76.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.