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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+5.30vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College4.15+2.82vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.66vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.66+2.49vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.07+3.45vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.62+0.61vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University2.38+3.75vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.55+2.06vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.19-1.11vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.73-0.34vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.70-4.78vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-4.84vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.97-4.29vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut1.72-1.51vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.77-5.47vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.22-0.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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4.82SUNY Maritime College4.150.2%1st Place
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5.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Naval Academy3.660.1%1st Place
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8.45Roger Williams University3.070.0%1st Place
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6.61College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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10.75Northwestern University2.380.0%1st Place
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10.06University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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7.89University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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9.66Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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6.22Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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8.71Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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12.49University of Connecticut1.720.0%1st Place
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9.53Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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15.21Princeton University0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Shawn Murray | 16.0% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 11.0% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| George Saunders | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Nick Johnstone | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Geoff Pedrick | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 16.2% | 4.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 2.3% |
| Michael Lee | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Alexander Sachs | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 1.9% |
| Brady Stagg | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Gary Herring | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Price | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Presti | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 30.5% | 11.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 1.3% |
| Philip Oasis | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 9.9% | 76.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.