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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+5.22vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.10vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.48+6.68vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.15+3.54vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.83+0.25vs Predicted
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6Washington College3.07+1.78vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.41-0.40vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.92+0.02vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston4.00-4.26vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin2.37+0.12vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.04+0.02vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University2.37-1.95vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.31+1.88vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut1.53-1.51vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.81-6.31vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.06-8.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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5.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.68Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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7.54Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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5.25U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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7.78Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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6.6University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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8.02Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.74College of Charleston4.000.2%1st Place
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10.12University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
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11.02Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.05Northwestern University2.370.0%1st Place
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14.88Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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12.49University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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8.69Dartmouth College2.810.0%1st Place
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7.81SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Liberty | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Austen Anderson | 13.9% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Alex Ramos | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Zach Runci | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Stokes | 15.7% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John Kinzel | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 2.4% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 17.3% | 5.9% |
| Michael Cornew | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 66.2% |
| Colin Silveno | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 26.0% | 15.4% |
| Timothy Scanlon | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.