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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.41+5.41vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.15+5.36vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+2.12vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.83+1.28vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.39vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.92+2.32vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston4.00-2.19vs Predicted
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8Washington College3.07-0.46vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.48+0.66vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.04+1.21vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.37-0.97vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University2.37-1.92vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.31+1.86vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut1.53-1.55vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.81-6.33vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.06-8.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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7.36Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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5.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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5.28U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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6.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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8.32Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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4.81College of Charleston4.000.2%1st Place
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7.54Washington College3.070.1%1st Place
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9.66Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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11.21Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.03University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
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10.08Northwestern University2.370.0%1st Place
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14.86Princeton University0.310.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Connecticut1.530.0%1st Place
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8.67Dartmouth College2.810.0%1st Place
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7.81SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Jermain | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Austen Anderson | 13.7% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 11.8% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Samuel Stokes | 15.6% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 2.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 16.2% | 5.7% |
| John Kinzel | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% |
| Michael Cornew | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 3.5% |
| Adrija Navarro | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 66.7% |
| Colin Silveno | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 24.8% | 15.4% |
| Timothy Scanlon | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Steel | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.