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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.74+7.00vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+6.33vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.34+10.69vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.78+7.62vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.35+4.33vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.62+2.31vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.88+0.19vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05+2.59vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.71-1.19vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-2.60vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.56-2.36vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.95-4.68vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-5.09vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University3.36-4.92vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.51-6.33vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-1.40vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island2.93-5.68vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-6.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.0Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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8.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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13.69Harvard University2.340.0%1st Place
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11.62Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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9.33Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.31Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
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7.19Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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10.59Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.81Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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7.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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8.64Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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7.32Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.08Salve Regina University3.360.0%1st Place
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8.67University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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14.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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11.32University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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11.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlena Fauer | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Louis Padnos | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Richard Bergsund | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 23.3% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.0% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Bernie Roesler | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Alex Cook | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Drew Shea | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 4.6% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Sommer | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| William Macdonald | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Michael Grove | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Kyle Carney | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Jordan Factor | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 34.9% |
| James Simmons | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.6% |
| Don Hause III | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.