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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.91vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.22+4.65vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.26+4.42vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.93+4.14vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.95+3.80vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.20-1.44vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.68-1.05vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.45-0.61vs Predicted
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9Tulane University1.73-3.18vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.69-1.45vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.48-1.12vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.13-2.79vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-3.64vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.05-2.57vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.65-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.6%1st Place
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6.65Northeastern University1.227.6%1st Place
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7.42North Carolina State University1.266.7%1st Place
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8.14George Washington University0.935.9%1st Place
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8.8Old Dominion University0.954.9%1st Place
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4.56Georgetown University2.2016.7%1st Place
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5.95Cornell University1.6811.7%1st Place
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7.39College of Charleston1.457.3%1st Place
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5.82Tulane University1.7311.1%1st Place
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8.55Tufts University0.694.8%1st Place
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9.88University of Vermont0.483.5%1st Place
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9.21Fordham University1.134.0%1st Place
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9.36St. Mary's College of Maryland0.673.5%1st Place
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11.43University of Michigan0.051.8%1st Place
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9.93Christopher Newport University0.653.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Eva Ermlich | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% |
| Piper Holthus | 16.7% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.7% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Grace Squires | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Ava Anderson | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Samantha Jensen | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.2% |
| Audrey Commerford | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 14.5% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 8.5% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 29.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.