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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+7.25vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.56+6.76vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.95+4.13vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.74+3.69vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.93+6.05vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.71+1.92vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.51+1.73vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05+2.59vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-1.94vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.56vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University3.36-1.49vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.35-2.24vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.88-5.94vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-2.95vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College2.78-3.29vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.62-7.66vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-2.30vs Predicted
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18Harvard University2.34-4.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.25U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.76Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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7.13Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.69Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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11.05University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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7.92Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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10.59Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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8.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.51Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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9.76Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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7.06Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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11.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.0%1st Place
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11.71Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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8.34Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
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14.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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13.25Harvard University2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| William Macdonald | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| James Simmons | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 7.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Drew Shea | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 4.9% |
| Andrew Sommer | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Louis Padnos | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Kyle Carney | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Alex Cook | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Don Hause III | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% |
| Bernie Roesler | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 16.5% | 37.7% |
| Richard Bergsund | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 20.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.