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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+3.42vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.22+4.64vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.95+5.93vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+2.99vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.65+4.92vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+3.20vs Predicted
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7Tulane University1.73-1.15vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68-2.12vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.45-1.77vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93-1.62vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.48-0.84vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.26-4.61vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.69-4.20vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.05-2.75vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-6.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42Georgetown University2.2017.8%1st Place
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6.64Northeastern University1.228.8%1st Place
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8.93Old Dominion University0.954.1%1st Place
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6.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.978.1%1st Place
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9.92Christopher Newport University0.653.5%1st Place
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9.2Fordham University1.134.1%1st Place
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5.85Tulane University1.7310.9%1st Place
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5.88Cornell University1.689.6%1st Place
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7.23College of Charleston1.457.8%1st Place
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8.38George Washington University0.934.3%1st Place
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10.16University of Vermont0.482.7%1st Place
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7.39North Carolina State University1.266.9%1st Place
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8.8Tufts University0.694.8%1st Place
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11.25University of Michigan0.052.4%1st Place
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8.97St. Mary's College of Maryland0.674.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Heather Kerns | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% |
| Ava Anderson | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Grace Squires | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 15.5% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% |
| Samantha Jensen | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 15.3% | 28.3% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.