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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+6.32vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+5.09vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.25vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.51+4.62vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.74+2.76vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University3.36+3.39vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.10vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05+2.62vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College2.78+2.76vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.56-1.24vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.35-1.52vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.62-3.35vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.88-5.96vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College3.71-6.38vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-3.71vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.93-4.73vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.34-3.43vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-3.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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7.09Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.62University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.76Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.39Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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8.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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10.62Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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11.76Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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8.76Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.48Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.65Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
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7.04Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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7.62Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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11.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.0%1st Place
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11.27University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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13.57Harvard University2.340.0%1st Place
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14.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Sommer | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| William Macdonald | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Michael Grove | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Kyle Carney | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Drew Shea | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.1% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Bernie Roesler | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Alex Cook | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Don Hause III | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% |
| James Simmons | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% |
| Richard Bergsund | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 17.2% | 22.3% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.