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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.56+7.77vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.51+6.93vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.95+4.10vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University3.36+5.28vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+3.08vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College2.78+5.77vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.71+0.85vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-0.92vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.74-1.33vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.67-1.67vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+0.45vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.35-2.22vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.62-4.84vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+0.25vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.93-3.84vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.05-5.26vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.34-3.44vs Predicted
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18Boston College3.88-10.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.77Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.93University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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7.1Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.28Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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8.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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11.77Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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7.85Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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7.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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7.67Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.0%1st Place
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9.78Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.16Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
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14.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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11.16University of Rhode Island2.930.0%1st Place
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10.74Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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13.56Harvard University2.340.0%1st Place
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7.03Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Jordan Factor | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| William Macdonald | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Kyle Carney | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Andrew Sommer | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Michael Grove | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Don Hause III | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| Bernie Roesler | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 33.1% |
| James Simmons | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.4% |
| Drew Shea | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% |
| Richard Bergsund | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 22.8% |
| Alex Cook | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.