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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+7.35vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.35+7.63vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University3.36+6.62vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.74+3.71vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.00vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95+0.95vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.56+1.50vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-0.94vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island3.02+1.82vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.62-1.39vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.51-2.12vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.78+0.18vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.05-2.48vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+0.25vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-3.69vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.88-8.71vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College3.71-8.96vs Predicted
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18Harvard University2.34-4.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.63Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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9.62Salve Regina University3.360.0%1st Place
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7.71Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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8.0U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.95Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.5Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
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7.06Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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10.82University of Rhode Island3.020.0%1st Place
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8.61Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
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8.88University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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12.18Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
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10.52Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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14.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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11.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.0%1st Place
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7.29Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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8.04Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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13.26Harvard University2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Kyle Carney | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Michael Grove | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| William Macdonald | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Andrew Sommer | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Chanel Miller | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 5.0% |
| Bernie Roesler | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Jordan Factor | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 14.3% |
| Drew Shea | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 33.5% |
| Don Hause III | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 6.6% |
| Alex Cook | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Richard Bergsund | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 15.6% | 19.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.