← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+7.32vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University3.56+6.78vs Predicted
-
3Roger Williams University3.95+4.15vs Predicted
-
4Boston College3.88+3.10vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99+9.35vs Predicted
-
6Yale University3.74+1.81vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+4.37vs Predicted
-
8Dartmouth College3.62+0.21vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.88vs Predicted
-
10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-2.57vs Predicted
-
11Salve Regina University3.36-1.47vs Predicted
-
12Boston University3.35-2.17vs Predicted
-
13University of Vermont3.51-4.43vs Predicted
-
14Connecticut College3.71-6.32vs Predicted
-
15Eckerd College2.78-3.23vs Predicted
-
16University of Rhode Island3.02-5.12vs Predicted
-
17Harvard University2.34-3.41vs Predicted
-
18Brown University3.05-7.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.32U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
8.78Tufts University3.560.1%1st Place
-
7.15Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
7.1Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
-
14.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
-
7.81Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
-
11.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.0%1st Place
-
8.21Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
-
8.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
-
7.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
-
9.53Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
-
9.83Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
-
8.57University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
-
7.68Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
-
11.77Eckerd College2.780.0%1st Place
-
10.88University of Rhode Island3.020.0%1st Place
-
13.59Harvard University2.340.0%1st Place
-
10.5Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| William Macdonald | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Alex Cook | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 16.3% | 33.8% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Don Hause III | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% |
| Bernie Roesler | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Louis Padnos | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Andrew Sommer | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Carney | 5.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Jordan Factor | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Robert Savoie | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.3% |
| Chanel Miller | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 5.2% |
| Richard Bergsund | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 23.6% |
| Drew Shea | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.