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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.94vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+2.47vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+2.79vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.22+2.55vs Predicted
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5Tulane University1.73+0.78vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.13+2.88vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.45+0.26vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.26-0.61vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.93-0.87vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.15-2.44vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95-2.08vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-3.14vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.05-2.01vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.65-4.36vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.76-2.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.977.5%1st Place
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4.47Georgetown University2.2017.1%1st Place
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5.79Cornell University1.6810.1%1st Place
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6.55Northeastern University1.228.8%1st Place
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5.78Tulane University1.7310.0%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University1.134.6%1st Place
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7.26College of Charleston1.457.5%1st Place
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7.39North Carolina State University1.266.3%1st Place
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8.13George Washington University0.935.8%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University1.157.0%1st Place
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8.92Old Dominion University0.954.0%1st Place
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8.86St. Mary's College of Maryland0.614.7%1st Place
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10.99University of Michigan0.052.1%1st Place
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9.64Christopher Newport University0.653.4%1st Place
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12.85University of Vermont-0.761.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.1% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Eva Ermlich | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Ava Anderson | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 4.9% |
| Grace Squires | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 2.4% |
| Ella Hubbard | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Lily Flack | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 3.7% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 19.1% | 19.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 8.0% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 50.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.