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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.81+3.58vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.34+3.54vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+4.87vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.61+4.57vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.27+4.68vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.09+0.30vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.24+3.08vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.93-0.78vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.18-1.82vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University0.71-1.86vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-3.99vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.80vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.64-0.77vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.84-4.72vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.71-6.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58College of Charleston1.8117.2%1st Place
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5.54Tulane University1.3412.0%1st Place
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7.87St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.3%1st Place
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8.57Cornell University0.614.9%1st Place
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9.68Old Dominion University0.273.5%1st Place
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6.3North Carolina State University1.099.8%1st Place
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10.08University of Vermont0.243.4%1st Place
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7.22Tufts University0.936.8%1st Place
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7.18Northeastern University1.187.4%1st Place
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8.14Georgetown University0.715.2%1st Place
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7.01George Washington University1.077.8%1st Place
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8.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.914.9%1st Place
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12.23University of Michigan-0.641.4%1st Place
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9.28Christopher Newport University-0.843.9%1st Place
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8.13Fordham University0.715.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 17.2% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Spearman | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Lina Carper | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Maya Conway | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 10.5% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 14.8% |
| Haley Andreasen | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 40.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.