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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.34+4.67vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.81+2.47vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.93+4.25vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.09+2.24vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.07+2.14vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.61+2.56vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University0.71+1.16vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.24+2.21vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.18-1.82vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.84-0.84vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-3.27vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.85vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.64-0.75vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.71-5.92vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University0.27-5.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67Tulane University1.3411.9%1st Place
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4.47College of Charleston1.8117.0%1st Place
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7.25Tufts University0.937.4%1st Place
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6.24North Carolina State University1.099.2%1st Place
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7.14George Washington University1.076.9%1st Place
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8.56Cornell University0.614.8%1st Place
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8.16Georgetown University0.714.9%1st Place
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10.21University of Vermont0.243.4%1st Place
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7.18Northeastern University1.187.0%1st Place
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9.16Christopher Newport University-0.843.9%1st Place
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7.73St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.0%1st Place
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8.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.9%1st Place
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12.25University of Michigan-0.641.9%1st Place
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8.08Fordham University0.716.0%1st Place
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9.74Old Dominion University0.273.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Spearman | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.0% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Haley Andreasen | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Maya Conway | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.0% |
| Morgan Rice | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 14.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% |
| Lina Carper | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 42.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.