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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.34+4.64vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.18+5.19vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University-0.84+6.24vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.61+4.41vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.93+2.16vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+1.74vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.71+1.15vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University0.71+0.12vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.09-2.62vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.24+0.14vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.27-1.19vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.07-4.91vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-4.90vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.64-1.71vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.81-10.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.64Tulane University1.3412.2%1st Place
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7.19Northeastern University1.188.0%1st Place
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9.24Christopher Newport University-0.843.6%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University0.615.3%1st Place
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7.16Tufts University0.936.7%1st Place
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7.74St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.4%1st Place
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8.15Fordham University0.715.0%1st Place
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8.12Georgetown University0.715.9%1st Place
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6.38North Carolina State University1.098.5%1st Place
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10.14University of Vermont0.243.1%1st Place
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9.81Old Dominion University0.273.8%1st Place
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7.09George Washington University1.077.2%1st Place
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8.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.8%1st Place
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12.29University of Michigan-0.641.7%1st Place
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4.53College of Charleston1.8117.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Spearman | 12.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 6.9% |
| Maya Conway | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 5.1% |
| Haley Andreasen | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Lina Carper | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 12.8% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 12.3% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 14.6% | 43.4% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.0% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.