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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.34+4.72vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.81+2.47vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+4.73vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University-0.84+5.08vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.11vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.09+0.24vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.18+0.28vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.27+1.84vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.61-0.54vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.71-1.97vs Predicted
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11Tufts University0.93-3.70vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University0.71-3.97vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.07-5.93vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.24-3.62vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.64-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.72Tulane University1.3411.0%1st Place
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4.47College of Charleston1.8117.4%1st Place
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7.73St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.9%1st Place
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9.08Christopher Newport University-0.844.7%1st Place
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8.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.3%1st Place
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6.24North Carolina State University1.099.2%1st Place
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7.28Northeastern University1.187.2%1st Place
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9.84Old Dominion University0.273.4%1st Place
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8.46Cornell University0.615.6%1st Place
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8.03Fordham University0.715.5%1st Place
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7.3Tufts University0.936.2%1st Place
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8.03Georgetown University0.715.5%1st Place
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7.07George Washington University1.077.5%1st Place
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10.38University of Vermont0.243.0%1st Place
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12.26University of Michigan-0.641.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Spearman | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.4% | 15.2% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Laura Smith | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 7.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 3.6% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 10.3% |
| Maya Conway | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% |
| Haley Andreasen | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 14.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 43.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.