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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.09+5.38vs Predicted
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2Tufts University0.93+5.37vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+4.68vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.98vs Predicted
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5Tulane University1.34+0.56vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.07+0.92vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.25vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.18-0.87vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.27+0.80vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.61-1.47vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.81-6.56vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.71-3.80vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University0.71-4.73vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.24-3.80vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.64-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.38North Carolina State University1.098.7%1st Place
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7.37Tufts University0.936.8%1st Place
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7.68St. Mary's College of Maryland0.837.5%1st Place
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7.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.5%1st Place
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5.56Tulane University1.3412.1%1st Place
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6.92George Washington University1.077.5%1st Place
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9.25Christopher Newport University-0.844.0%1st Place
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7.13Northeastern University1.188.0%1st Place
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9.8Old Dominion University0.273.8%1st Place
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8.53Cornell University0.614.8%1st Place
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4.44College of Charleston1.8116.6%1st Place
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8.2Fordham University0.715.1%1st Place
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8.27Georgetown University0.714.7%1st Place
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10.2University of Vermont0.243.2%1st Place
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12.28University of Michigan-0.640.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Haley Andreasen | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Lina Carper | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% |
| Lucy Spearman | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Laura Smith | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 11.8% |
| Maya Conway | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Emma Tallman | 16.6% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Morgan Rice | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 43.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.