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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.81+3.47vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.34+3.66vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.93+4.37vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University0.71+4.28vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.07+1.96vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+1.85vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+0.85vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.18-0.93vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.09-2.59vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.61-1.51vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.27-1.18vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan-0.64+0.21vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.76vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.71-6.05vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.24-4.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47College of Charleston1.8117.9%1st Place
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5.66Tulane University1.3410.9%1st Place
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7.37Tufts University0.937.0%1st Place
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8.28Georgetown University0.715.8%1st Place
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6.96George Washington University1.077.8%1st Place
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7.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.7%1st Place
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7.85St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.8%1st Place
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7.07Northeastern University1.188.4%1st Place
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6.41North Carolina State University1.098.6%1st Place
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8.49Cornell University0.614.3%1st Place
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9.82Old Dominion University0.273.8%1st Place
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12.21University of Michigan-0.641.5%1st Place
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9.24Christopher Newport University-0.844.4%1st Place
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7.95Fordham University0.716.0%1st Place
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10.38University of Vermont0.242.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 17.9% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Spearman | 10.9% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Haley Andreasen | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Lina Carper | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Maya Conway | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 11.8% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 41.7% |
| Laura Smith | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 15.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.