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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.07+5.78vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.81+2.44vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+4.81vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.09+2.03vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.18+1.94vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.61+2.33vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University-0.84+2.12vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.27+1.63vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.71-1.22vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University0.71-1.97vs Predicted
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11Tulane University1.08-4.55vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-4.42vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.24-2.78vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.64-1.70vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.54-6.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78George Washington University1.078.8%1st Place
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4.44College of Charleston1.8117.2%1st Place
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7.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.9%1st Place
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6.03North Carolina State University1.0910.6%1st Place
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6.94Northeastern University1.188.2%1st Place
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8.33Cornell University0.615.5%1st Place
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9.12Christopher Newport University-0.844.2%1st Place
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9.63Old Dominion University0.273.4%1st Place
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7.78Fordham University0.716.9%1st Place
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8.03Georgetown University0.714.9%1st Place
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6.45Tulane University1.088.7%1st Place
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7.58St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.6%1st Place
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10.22University of Vermont0.242.9%1st Place
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12.3University of Michigan-0.641.1%1st Place
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8.56Tufts University0.545.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.2% | 16.1% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Maya Conway | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.3% |
| Laura Smith | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 7.6% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 9.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| Morgan Rice | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Audrey Permenter | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Lina Carper | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 14.6% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 42.4% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.