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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.09+5.11vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.81+2.45vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.61+5.38vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.54+4.45vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.07+1.79vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.27+3.49vs Predicted
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7Tulane University1.08-0.30vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84+1.07vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University0.71-0.89vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.19vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan-0.64+1.34vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.18-5.03vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.24-3.02vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.71-6.20vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-7.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.11North Carolina State University1.0910.2%1st Place
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4.45College of Charleston1.8117.0%1st Place
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8.38Cornell University0.615.2%1st Place
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8.45Tufts University0.544.3%1st Place
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6.79George Washington University1.078.7%1st Place
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9.49Old Dominion University0.273.5%1st Place
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6.7Tulane University1.088.1%1st Place
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9.07Christopher Newport University-0.845.0%1st Place
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8.11Georgetown University0.715.3%1st Place
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7.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.2%1st Place
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12.34University of Michigan-0.641.6%1st Place
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6.97Northeastern University1.188.2%1st Place
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9.98University of Vermont0.243.5%1st Place
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7.8Fordham University0.716.5%1st Place
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7.53St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.0% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Maya Conway | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.3% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.2% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.7% |
| Audrey Permenter | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Laura Smith | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 44.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 13.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Lina Carper | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.