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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.81+3.52vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+5.62vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University-0.84+6.04vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+3.96vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.18+1.98vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.34-0.30vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.27+2.70vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.06vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University0.71-1.01vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.09-3.73vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.07-4.02vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.61-3.57vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.24-2.96vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.64-1.75vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.54-6.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52College of Charleston1.8116.4%1st Place
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7.62St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.5%1st Place
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9.04Christopher Newport University-0.844.2%1st Place
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7.96Fordham University0.716.0%1st Place
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6.98Northeastern University1.187.6%1st Place
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5.7Tulane University1.3411.5%1st Place
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9.7Old Dominion University0.273.4%1st Place
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7.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.5%1st Place
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7.99Georgetown University0.715.3%1st Place
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6.27North Carolina State University1.0910.0%1st Place
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6.98George Washington University1.078.2%1st Place
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8.43Cornell University0.615.2%1st Place
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10.04University of Vermont0.243.5%1st Place
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12.25University of Michigan-0.641.2%1st Place
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8.58Tufts University0.545.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 16.4% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Laura Smith | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Lucy Spearman | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 10.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Maya Conway | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 14.8% | 12.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 44.1% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.