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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+6.80vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.81+2.51vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.71+5.10vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.54+4.35vs Predicted
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5Cornell University0.61+3.48vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.07+0.91vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+1.04vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.34-2.32vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.09-2.79vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.24+0.09vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.18-4.04vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University0.71-3.94vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.27-3.57vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University-0.84-4.88vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.64-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.2%1st Place
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4.51College of Charleston1.8117.2%1st Place
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8.1Fordham University0.715.3%1st Place
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8.35Tufts University0.545.8%1st Place
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8.48Cornell University0.615.3%1st Place
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6.91George Washington University1.077.3%1st Place
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8.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.1%1st Place
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5.68Tulane University1.3411.1%1st Place
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6.21North Carolina State University1.0910.5%1st Place
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10.09University of Vermont0.243.7%1st Place
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6.96Northeastern University1.187.9%1st Place
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8.06Georgetown University0.715.9%1st Place
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9.43Old Dominion University0.273.5%1st Place
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9.12Christopher Newport University-0.843.5%1st Place
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12.25University of Michigan-0.641.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lina Carper | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 2.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.2% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| Maya Conway | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Lucy Spearman | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% |
| Laura Smith | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 43.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.