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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.34+4.48vs Predicted
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2Tufts University0.54+6.62vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+4.70vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.07+3.00vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University0.71+3.22vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.18+1.00vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.71+1.12vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University-0.84+1.01vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.81-4.68vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-2.11vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.27-1.48vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.24-1.92vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.61-4.56vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.09-7.70vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.64-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Tulane University1.3410.5%1st Place
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8.62Tufts University0.544.9%1st Place
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7.7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.0%1st Place
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7.0George Washington University1.077.4%1st Place
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8.22Georgetown University0.715.8%1st Place
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7.0Northeastern University1.187.0%1st Place
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8.12Fordham University0.715.7%1st Place
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9.01Christopher Newport University-0.844.5%1st Place
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4.32College of Charleston1.8119.8%1st Place
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7.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.0%1st Place
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9.52Old Dominion University0.273.7%1st Place
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10.08University of Vermont0.243.2%1st Place
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8.44Cornell University0.614.9%1st Place
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6.3North Carolina State University1.099.3%1st Place
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12.29University of Michigan-0.641.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Spearman | 10.5% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 4.9% |
| Lina Carper | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.5% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 3.3% |
| Laura Smith | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 6.8% |
| Emma Tallman | 19.8% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 13.8% |
| Maya Conway | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 43.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.