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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.81+3.46vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.34+3.63vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University-0.84+6.13vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+4.04vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University0.71+3.07vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.07+0.84vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.54+1.37vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.09-1.74vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.08vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.61-1.61vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.18-3.81vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.27-2.39vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.64-0.73vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-6.28vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.24-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.46College of Charleston1.8117.9%1st Place
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5.63Tulane University1.3412.2%1st Place
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9.13Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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8.04Fordham University0.716.2%1st Place
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8.07Georgetown University0.715.2%1st Place
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6.84George Washington University1.077.7%1st Place
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8.37Tufts University0.545.3%1st Place
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6.26North Carolina State University1.0910.1%1st Place
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7.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.4%1st Place
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8.39Cornell University0.615.6%1st Place
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7.19Northeastern University1.187.0%1st Place
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9.61Old Dominion University0.273.1%1st Place
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12.27University of Michigan-0.641.2%1st Place
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7.72St. Mary's College of Maryland0.835.9%1st Place
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10.1University of Vermont0.242.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 17.9% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Spearman | 12.2% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
| Maya Conway | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 9.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 13.8% | 42.6% |
| Lina Carper | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 14.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.