Race 4A

nicholas-j-barnett

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Deirdre Lambert 22.2% 20.2% 17.1% 13.5% 9.7% 7.5% 4.4% 2.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Lippincott 6.1% 6.7% 7.1% 8.9% 8.5% 10.4% 11.8% 10.9% 9.1% 8.7% 7.1% 3.2% 1.5%
Ian Paice 3.9% 4.4% 6.7% 7.3% 8.6% 8.1% 9.5% 11.3% 11.6% 12.4% 8.2% 6.0% 2.0%
Ian Donahue 10.6% 9.7% 10.3% 10.5% 12.1% 11.7% 9.0% 7.7% 7.5% 6.3% 2.7% 1.7% 0.2%
Peter Edmunds 9.6% 10.4% 9.7% 10.6% 11.0% 9.6% 10.6% 9.5% 8.6% 4.5% 3.6% 2.0% 0.3%
Jared Dunn 1.0% 2.1% 3.0% 3.3% 2.6% 3.8% 4.9% 5.2% 8.5% 9.8% 15.3% 20.3% 20.2%
Natalie Salk 17.3% 15.3% 13.8% 11.3% 13.8% 9.5% 7.4% 6.0% 3.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Hulse 2.6% 2.9% 3.5% 4.2% 3.6% 5.3% 5.8% 8.4% 9.8% 11.1% 16.7% 16.8% 9.3%
David Pierce 4.9% 5.1% 4.9% 5.9% 8.1% 7.8% 9.6% 9.9% 11.1% 13.2% 8.9% 8.0% 2.6%
Elizabeth Whipple 14.8% 13.9% 13.8% 13.2% 9.3% 11.5% 6.8% 6.7% 5.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Bradley Abbott 4.3% 6.0% 6.7% 7.1% 6.0% 9.0% 10.8% 11.2% 11.2% 10.2% 8.8% 6.5% 2.2%
Sean Willerford 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 5.0% 4.1% 6.6% 7.4% 7.7% 13.0% 14.6% 17.3% 14.9%
James Fales 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 2.8% 3.1% 4.7% 5.9% 11.4% 17.8% 46.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.