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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.09+5.22vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University-0.84+7.06vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.54+5.51vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.81+0.35vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.71+2.92vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.24+4.31vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+0.91vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.34-2.40vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-1.33vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.27-0.33vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University0.54-2.41vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.18-5.07vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.07-6.04vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.61-5.69vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.64-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22North Carolina State University1.098.8%1st Place
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9.06Christopher Newport University-0.843.6%1st Place
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8.51Tufts University0.545.3%1st Place
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4.35College of Charleston1.8119.4%1st Place
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7.92Fordham University0.716.5%1st Place
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10.31University of Vermont0.243.0%1st Place
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7.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.2%1st Place
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5.6Tulane University1.3411.8%1st Place
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7.67St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.1%1st Place
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9.67Old Dominion University0.272.9%1st Place
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8.59Georgetown University0.544.8%1st Place
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6.93Northeastern University1.187.0%1st Place
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6.96George Washington University1.077.5%1st Place
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8.31Cornell University0.615.5%1st Place
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11.99University of Michigan-0.641.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Laura Smith | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.1% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 19.4% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 15.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% |
| Lucy Spearman | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Lina Carper | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Emma Friedauer | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 9.8% |
| Alexa Shea | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Maya Conway | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 40.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.