Race 1B

nicholas-j-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kelsey Wheeler 10.9% 12.1% 11.6% 10.9% 10.9% 9.9% 10.3% 8.1% 6.5% 5.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0%
Brendan Heussler 9.3% 8.4% 9.2% 10.9% 10.1% 11.0% 8.7% 9.3% 9.4% 6.8% 4.5% 2.0% 0.4%
Tommy Holmberg 3.6% 6.1% 6.7% 7.1% 7.7% 7.0% 8.7% 10.4% 12.6% 13.0% 9.6% 5.5% 2.0%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon 20.6% 17.3% 14.9% 12.7% 10.2% 9.2% 6.4% 4.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Conor Lodge 9.6% 7.0% 10.1% 9.6% 8.6% 8.9% 10.7% 11.3% 9.4% 6.3% 5.6% 2.5% 0.4%
Genevieve Marquardt 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 3.7% 3.0% 4.2% 4.5% 6.4% 8.5% 12.5% 17.8% 20.2% 11.9%
Michael Saldi 12.0% 8.2% 9.0% 9.7% 9.6% 10.2% 10.5% 9.3% 8.2% 7.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Jeff Goodrich 7.9% 9.5% 7.9% 9.6% 11.0% 9.3% 11.0% 10.7% 9.4% 8.4% 3.6% 1.5% 0.2%
Sam Wyer 1.5% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 4.0% 3.4% 4.7% 6.1% 12.0% 17.5% 22.7% 17.1%
Andrew McHenry 2.1% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 3.3% 3.2% 4.3% 4.5% 9.8% 10.7% 17.3% 19.6% 18.1%
Carolyn Naughton 9.6% 11.8% 9.7% 9.0% 9.9% 12.0% 9.0% 9.3% 8.2% 5.4% 4.2% 1.8% 0.1%
Caleb Armstrong 10.1% 11.5% 12.1% 9.9% 12.0% 9.7% 10.7% 8.5% 6.4% 4.8% 3.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Jacob Hardy 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 1.9% 0.6% 1.4% 1.8% 2.9% 3.1% 6.8% 9.8% 20.5% 48.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.