Race 2B

nicholas-j-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brendan Heussler 9.0% 10.1% 8.0% 12.3% 9.3% 9.7% 10.4% 10.2% 9.8% 5.5% 3.6% 1.7% 0.4%
Genevieve Marquardt 2.2% 2.7% 2.2% 3.1% 3.2% 4.3% 5.5% 5.2% 7.9% 11.6% 19.2% 19.6% 13.3%
Caleb Armstrong 10.6% 11.3% 11.6% 10.6% 12.0% 11.5% 8.4% 8.5% 7.0% 5.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Jeff Goodrich 9.0% 7.7% 9.0% 11.6% 9.1% 8.4% 11.0% 9.9% 9.1% 7.9% 4.6% 2.3% 0.4%
Carolyn Naughton 10.5% 11.1% 9.3% 9.6% 8.7% 11.2% 9.0% 9.3% 8.7% 6.9% 4.1% 1.6% 0.0%
Michael Saldi 8.8% 10.5% 10.6% 9.4% 9.5% 9.8% 10.5% 9.4% 7.0% 7.4% 4.7% 2.2% 0.2%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon 20.0% 18.4% 16.1% 11.7% 10.4% 7.3% 6.8% 4.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Kelsey Wheeler 11.8% 11.3% 13.8% 8.4% 11.1% 11.2% 9.2% 8.6% 7.8% 4.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Conor Lodge 7.7% 8.2% 8.5% 8.7% 10.4% 9.0% 11.3% 10.2% 8.7% 8.8% 5.6% 2.3% 0.6%
Tommy Holmberg 6.2% 4.6% 6.5% 7.3% 8.3% 8.4% 7.6% 10.9% 11.8% 10.7% 9.6% 6.1% 2.0%
Sam Wyer 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 3.5% 3.4% 4.2% 4.5% 5.9% 8.5% 11.6% 16.5% 20.7% 16.1%
Andrew McHenry 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% 3.1% 3.3% 4.7% 5.4% 6.4% 12.4% 16.3% 22.8% 17.7%
Jacob Hardy 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 2.3% 4.1% 6.8% 11.2% 18.6% 49.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.